Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe43…c5b1 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$975 (-24%) realized −$918 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$85
economics 26% −$133
finance 15% −$327
crypto 13% −$279
politics 9% −$26
sports 8% −$93
world 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.1% -42.2% 25% 0% -17.4%
≤30d 9 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 11% -30.9%
≤90d 21 -50.5% -55.2% 14% 5% -42.2%
all 68 -27.4% -34.3% 31% 26% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 26% -34.2%
10% -40.6% 26% -40.5%
15% -46.3% 25% -46.3%
20% -51.6% 22% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$918
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage585d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $209 $118 −$91 (-44%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $36 $66 +$30 (+85%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $54 $48 −$5 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $354 −$26 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 −$13 -38%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $193 +$3 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 30 $267 −$90 -34%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $156 +$38 +25%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? May 25 $61 −$43 -70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 24 $113 −$71 -63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? May 23 $56 −$39 -71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 23 $50 −$38 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 23 $100 −$40 -40%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $50 −$19 -37%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $25 −$11 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $51 −$29 -57%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 14 $152 −$12 -8%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 12 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 11 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Mar 14 $24 +$16 +69%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-01? Mar 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-21? Mar 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) Mar 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-10-27? Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-03-01? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-09? Mar 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Mar 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Mar 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Mar 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 08 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor end in a draw? Mar 08 $16 +$26 +171%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $16 −$1 -6%
Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 18 $28 +$22 +75%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 18 $14 +$36 +245%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $103 +$96 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $328 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 34h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 34h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 47h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $21 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.17 · official $324.17 (match) · 393 history records