Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe44…bebe politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 23% $0
sports 12% $0
culture 6% $0
world 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage110d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $82 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $80 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $81 14h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 11d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $81 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $81 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 35d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 36d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 36d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 40d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $81 45d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $81 46d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $82 69d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 70d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 76d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 76d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 77d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 85d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 86d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $82 94d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $82 95d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 100¢ $82 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 100¢ $82 99d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 99¢ $82 102d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $83 102d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 103d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $83 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records