Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbe46…1f98 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate71%72W / 29L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.7% -30.1% 57% 14% -18.8%
≤30d 7 -22.7% -30.1% 57% 14% -18.8%
≤90d 101 +1.5% -8.1% 71% 18% -8.1%
all 101 +1.5% -8.1% 71% 18% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 18% -8.1%
10% -16.9% 6% -16.8%
15% -24.9% 5% -24.9%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses72 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 15 $1 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $52 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $22 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 14 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 -23%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $26 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $22 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records