Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe4d…d39b sports 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$581 (-2%) realized −$584 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate88%197W / 26L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$86
14 days−$117
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$217
other 10% −$466
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.9% -18.5% 72% 39% -21.8%
≤30d 92 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 223 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 30% -11.3%
all 223 +0.3% -9.3% 88% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 30% -11.3%
10% -18.0% 11% -19.8%
15% -25.9% 5% -27.5%
20% -33.2% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$124 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$584
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses197 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage66d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 88¢ 94¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$5 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 16 $24 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $37 +$2 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$2 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $21 +$13 +60%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $55 +$7 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $58 −$3 -6%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$7 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $46 +$2 +4%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $47 −$1 -2%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $40 +$7 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 −$18 -37%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 11 $52 +$6 +12%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 10 $49 +$4 +7%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 10 $47 +$2 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $34 +$13 +40%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $32 +$2 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $31 +$1 +4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $28 +$3 +12%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $26 +$1 +5%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $25 +$1 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $21 +$4 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $10 −$3 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $58 −$58 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $56 +$2 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $52 +$4 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $42 +$10 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $31 +$10 +33%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $22 +$9 +42%
Centurion 2: Alec Beckley vs Tuncay Duran Jun 04 $21 +$1 +4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 −$106 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $88 +$12 +13%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $63 +$26 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $44 +$18 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $39 +$5 +12%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $36 +$3 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $29 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 88¢ $40 36m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 72¢ $25 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $26 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 92¢ $24 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $39 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 94¢ $37 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $37 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 97¢ $36 4d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $35 4d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 93¢ $33 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 62¢ $21 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 95¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $61 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $62 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 89¢ $55 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 56¢ $55 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 58¢ $58 6d
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $58 6d
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 94¢ $55 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $48 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 96¢ $46 7d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra SELL Caty McNally 87¢ $46 7d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 88¢ $47 7d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Marco Cecchinato 100¢ $47 7d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 85¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.83 · official $42.83 (match) · 461 history records