Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe54…901a crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-8%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 56% -22.7%
≤30d 9 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 56% -22.7%
≤90d 9 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 56% -22.7%
all 9 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 56% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 56% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 56% -30.1%
15% -34.3% 22% -36.9%
20% -40.7% 22% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$88 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $408 −$189 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $133 +$34 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$24 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $408 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records