Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe57…3920 crypto 666 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,180 (-11%) realized −$5,050 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate69%456W / 209L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$314
14 days−$1,247
30 days−$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$1,902
crypto 35% −$661
weather 26% −$1,271
other 4% −$207
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 44% -23.1%
≤30d 135 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 38% -12.1%
≤90d 217 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 38% -13.4%
all 665 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 23% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 23% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 17% -25.1%
15% -30.5% 11% -32.3%
20% -37.3% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$55 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$5,050
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses456 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)665 / 666
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $336 $205 −$130 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 21 $58 +$16 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$24 +52%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $20 +$11 +52%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $391 −$389 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $40 +$4 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$27 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $483 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $254 +$596 +235%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $382 −$359 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 +$14 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $81 +$17 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $590 −$173 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $210 −$136 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $605 +$109 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$24 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $557 +$23 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $300 −$298 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $448 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $31 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $26 −$16 -61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $364 +$195 +53%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $576 −$545 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $90 −$59 -66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $483 +$550 +114%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $603 −$375 -62%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $530 +$312 +59%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $155 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $280 +$320 +114%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 04 $192 −$191 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $165 +$118 +71%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 03 $387 +$265 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag SELL eStar Pro 100¢ $74 1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY eStar Pro 82¢ $3 1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY eStar Pro 78¢ $50 1h
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY eStar Pro 78¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 24h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 65¢ $20 3d
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 69¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $61 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 72¢ $34 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 66¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 64¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.49 · official $205.49 (match) · 3500 history records