Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BE 0xbe5a…6962 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$275
sports 34% +$141
crypto 14% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 36% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 36% -8.9%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 36% -8.9%
all 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 36% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 36% -8.9%
10% -20.8% 27% -17.6%
15% -28.4% 27% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 27% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$75 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 +$101 +101%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $100 −$43 -43%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $332 +$58 +17%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $153 −$4 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$143 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$194 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$157 +157%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $201 50m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $57 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $390 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $332 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $53 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $142 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $257 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records