Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe5c…b460 politics 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$9
politics 34% −$8
sports 10% +$129
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 122 +8.1% -2.2% 11% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 8% -9.0%
10% -11.6% 7% -17.7%
15% -20.1% 5% -25.7%
20% -28.0% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×23.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage125d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $165 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $163 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 24 $154 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $339 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $125 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $301 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $315 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $456 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $322 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $327 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $311 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 3h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 9h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 16d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 19d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 19d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $168 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $168 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $153 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $153 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $151 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $151 20d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 20d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 21d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $145 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 350 history records