Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

BE 0xbe5d…1a9e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$48 (-19%) realized −$137 · open +$89

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-26.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-18.6%	-26.4%	50%	25%	-31.2%
≤30d	4	-18.6%	-26.4%	50%	25%	-31.2%
≤90d	4	-18.6%	-26.4%	50%	25%	-31.2%
all	4	-18.6%	-26.4%	50%	25%	-31.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.4%	25%	-31.2%
10%	-33.4%	25%	-37.8%
15%	-39.9%	0%	-43.8%
20%	-45.8%	0%	-49.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$189

Realized−$137

Unrealized+$89

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage5d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	53¢	100¢	$100	$189	+$89 (+89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$48	+$14	+29%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$50	−$49	-99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?	Jun 18	$49	$0	+0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1	$0	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$62	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	77¢	$48	1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	74¢	$50	4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?	SELL No	72¢	$50	4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?	BUY No	71¢	$49	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	89¢	$1	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.58 · official $188.58 (match) · 8 history records