Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

BE 0xbe63…5b56 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day20.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-13.1%	-21.4%	44%	39%	-35.0%
≤30d	18	-13.1%	-21.4%	44%	39%	-35.0%
≤90d	18	-13.1%	-21.4%	44%	39%	-35.0%
all	18	-13.1%	-21.4%	44%	39%	-35.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-21.4%	39%	-35.0%
10% ← realistic here	-28.9%	28%	-41.2%
15%	-35.8%	28%	-46.9%
20%	-42.1%	22%	-52.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late -30% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$71 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day20.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 19	$52	+$25	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 19	$51	+$6	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 19	$203	−$91	-45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	+$60	+119%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 17	$287	−$232	-81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$102	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 17	$103	−$57	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 17	$37	+$100	+272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$103	+$62	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$100	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 17	$212	−$100	-47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$51	+$68	+134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$15	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$77	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	83¢	$112	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	20¢	$10	12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$11	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$102	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$34	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$18	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records