Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BE 0xbe6d…422c other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 707d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,495 (+40%) realized +$3,430 · open +$65

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$488per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$1,366now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$126

7 days+$236

14 days+$381

30 days+$381

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-0.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+58.3%	+43.2%	100%	100%	+43.2%
≤30d	5	+55.2%	+40.4%	80%	80%	+24.9%
≤90d	6	+31.6%	+19.1%	67%	67%	+19.5%
all	16	+10.5%	-0.1%	56%	56%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.1%	56%	+31.7%
10%	-9.6%	56%	+19.1%
15%	-18.3%	56%	+7.6%
20%	-26.4%	44%	-3.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +28% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$524 vs −$188 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage

Net worth$1,366

Realized+$3,430

Unrealized+$65

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage707d

Avg bet$488

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$1,001	$1,069	+$68 (+7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$300	$297	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$202	+$126	+62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$202	+$110	+55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$203	−$200	-98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	Jun 14	$297	+$129	+44%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca	Jun 14	$100	+$216	+216%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Apr 12	$50	−$43	-86%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 09	$200	−$144	-72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	Jan 12	$200	+$217	+108%
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan	May 31	$500	−$473	-94%
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?	Feb 10	$150	−$150	-100%
Nuggets vs. Heat	Feb 10	$200	−$200	-100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Feb 10	$250	+$260	+104%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$4,553	+$3,563	+78%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Jul 24	$193	−$103	-53%
Lettuce vs. Biden - Who lasts longer?	Jul 22	$70	+$30	+43%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?	Jul 18	$100	+$64	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$202	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$202	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	45¢	$203	7d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	BUY Carlos Ulberg	52¢	$150	70d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	SELL Jirí Procházka	48¢	$142	70d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car	BUY Jirí Procházka	49¢	$147	70d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca	BUY Paulo Costa	31¢	$100	70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	SELL Curtis Blaydes	7¢	$7	70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Curtis Blaydes	50¢	$50	70d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	SELL Patriots	9¢	$56	132d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	32¢	$200	133d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	BUY Yes	48¢	$200	161d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$67	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$54	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$45	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$25	184d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$110	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$7	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$154	185d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$63	185d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,366.12 · official $1,366.12 (match) · 267 history records