Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe74…a883 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+6%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$140
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$64
other 35% +$21
sports 21% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 55% +6.3%
≤30d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 55% +6.3%
≤90d 11 +17.6% +6.4% 64% 55% +6.3%
all 23 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 39% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 39% +0.4%
10% -19.1% 30% -9.2%
15% -26.9% 22% -17.9%
20% -34.1% 13% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$15 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage245d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$39 +193%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$15 +29%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $63 −$2 -4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$4 +8%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 25 $200 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Oct 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Oct 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Oct 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Oct 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? Oct 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 20 $500 +$40 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 20? Oct 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Oct 20 $10 +$52 +525%
Will Tottenham vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Oct 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 90¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 74¢ $66 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $60 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $63 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $52 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $3 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $51 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $101 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 86¢ $145 31h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 46¢ $98 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 39h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 46¢ $102 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? SELL No 90¢ $244 239d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? BUY No 74¢ $200 242d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 242d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 242d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $40 242d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 242d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 242d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 243d
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 243d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? SELL No 94¢ $540 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 40 history records