Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe75…1f86 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$116 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$57
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$38
sports 32% −$148
other 31% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.9% -0.6% 46% 36% +1.8%
≤30d 30 +9.7% -0.8% 47% 37% +4.6%
≤90d 66 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 36% -6.0%
all 84 +11.5% +0.9% 51% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 44% -14.9%
10% -8.8% 40% -23.0%
15% -17.6% 37% -30.5%
20% -25.7% 30% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage94d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $350 $377 +$27 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$34 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$16 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +669%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $10 +$17 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 10 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$3 +33%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 10 $50 +$31 +61%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 09 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 09 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 08 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $33 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $119 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $5 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.17 · official $404.17 · 188 history records