Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BE 0xbe79…8801 other 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+29%) realized +$179 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$277
politics 17% −$100
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% +21.4%
≤30d 4 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% +21.4%
≤90d 4 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% +21.4%
all 4 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 50% +21.4%
10% -20.5% 50% +9.8%
15% -28.1% 50% -0.8%
20% -35.2% 25% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$52 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $303 +$131 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.29 · official $97.29 (match) · 9 history records