Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe80…0784 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,548 (-9%) realized −$7,548 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,836per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,564
7 days+$2,658
14 days+$2,658
30 days+$3,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$10,038
other 34% +$2,886
crypto 2% +$1,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.0%
≤30d 3 +101.4% +82.2% 100% 100% +58.5%
≤90d 29 -38.1% -44.0% 31% 31% -23.7%
all 44 -21.2% -28.7% 36% 36% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 36% -16.3%
10% -35.6% 36% -24.3%
15% -41.8% 36% -31.6%
20% -47.5% 36% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,844) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,407 vs −$1,592 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,836
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,638 +$1,564 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,690 +$1,093 +65%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $567 +$1,023 +180%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 12 $748 −$736 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $1,343 −$1,343 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 27 $314 −$309 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $790 −$790 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $931 −$909 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $441 −$434 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 14 $694 −$682 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Apr 13 $2,095 +$2,648 +126%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $952 −$952 -100%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $2,144 −$2,144 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2,403 +$1,966 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 02 $2,371 −$2,371 -100%
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5) Mar 31 $1,405 −$1,376 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Mar 31 $2,287 +$2,992 +131%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Mar 30 $2,878 +$2,248 +78%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Mar 28 $1,939 −$1,939 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 27 $1,495 −$1,495 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $2,814 +$3,297 +117%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3,234 −$3,234 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 21 $997 −$997 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Mar 21 $2,791 −$2,791 -100%
Panthers vs. Flames Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $3,137 −$3,137 -100%
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $3,087 +$1,736 +56%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $2,999 +$3,659 +122%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $2,920 −$2,920 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Mar 16 $2,920 −$2,920 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $2,843 −$2,843 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1,960 +$3,364 +172%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1,350 +$2,899 +215%
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) Mar 13 $2,844 +$3,075 +108%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1,717 −$1,717 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $3,025 −$3,025 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1,677 +$2,977 +178%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Mar 11 $1,511 +$1,570 +104%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $2,872 −$2,872 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $3,321 +$2,405 +72%
Celtics vs. Suns Feb 25 $815 −$815 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $1,630 −$1,630 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,202 27m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2,638 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $1,690 3d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 35¢ $567 32d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $748 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 30¢ $199 40d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY Astralis 66¢ $1,343 47d
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $314 51d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 19¢ $790 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 21¢ $931 58d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? BUY No 46¢ $441 63d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $694 64d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $25 67d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 43¢ $2,070 67d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? BUY No 24¢ $88 67d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? BUY No 24¢ $864 67d
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early BUY Loopy Godínez 41¢ $94 67d
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early BUY Loopy Godínez 41¢ $2,050 67d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 55¢ $1,564 68d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY No 55¢ $840 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up $1 68d
Utah vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 44¢ $965 77d
Utah vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 44¢ $703 77d
Utah vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 44¢ $702 77d
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5) BUY Red Wings 29¢ $1,405 78d
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $2,287 79d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $466 80d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $500 80d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 69¢ $1,912 80d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Avalanche 49¢ $1,939 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records