Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe83…3668 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-9%) realized −$302 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%26W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$326
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
sports 21% −$61
other 11% −$193
crypto 8% −$23
tech 3% −$55
weather 1% −$21
politics 1% −$20
finance 0% +$58
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -85.9% -87.3% 6% 6% -81.5%
≤30d 71 -66.2% -69.4% 15% 15% -59.6%
≤90d 73 -64.0% -67.4% 18% 16% -53.5%
all 100 -40.8% -46.4% 26% 18% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 18% -17.7%
10% -51.5% 16% -25.6%
15% -56.2% 14% -32.8%
20% -60.5% 11% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses26 / 74
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)100 / 108
History coverage233d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 64¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 59¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 41¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 +$5 +44%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 13 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 13 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 14? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 14? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Mohammed bin Salman shake hands for 15 seconds or more Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 4? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 3? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $45 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $15 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $11 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 7¢ $2 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 8¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 96¢ $27 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 6¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.85 · official $152.85 (match) · 244 history records