Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe89…b88c
politics · 486 markets active 18h ago
1.0score
+$75,338 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71,192 · open +$4,111
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152,942
Realized+$71,192
Unrealized+$4,111
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses233 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions42
Markets (closed)444 / 486
History coverage281d
Avg bet$4,467
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 42 History 444 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$161
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $91,734 $92,650 +$916 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $12,432 $12,395 −$37 (-0%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $7,082 $7,460 +$379 (+5%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $5,670 $6,493 +$823 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5,741 $5,807 +$66 (+1%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $4,780 $4,837 +$57 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 86¢ $3,681 $4,511 +$830 (+23%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $4,000 $4,490 +$490 (+12%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,915 $2,899 −$16 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 76¢ 86¢ $1,671 $1,888 +$217 (+13%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,367 $1,345 −$22 (-2%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,272 $1,301 +$29 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,088 $1,112 +$24 (+2%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $865 $874 +$8 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $723 $711 −$12 (-2%)
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $523 $555 +$31 (+6%)
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $485 $547 +$61 (+13%)
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $385 $388 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement? No 75¢ 96¢ $300 $384 +$84 (+28%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 60¢ 76¢ $303 $380 +$78 (+26%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 52¢ 56¢ $307 $330 +$23 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $188 $200 +$12 (+6%)
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $180 $191 +$11 (+6%)
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $156 $183 +$27 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 04 $30,810 +$182 +1%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 04 $65 −$36 -55%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$52 -52%
Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 03 $565 +$91 +16%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 03 $2,505 +$128 +5%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 03 $4,238 +$127 +3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 01 $10,411 −$281 -3%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 25 $7 +$43 +667%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $264 −$192 -73%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $276 −$223 -81%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 17 $111 −$83 -75%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 16 $133 −$21 -16%
US bank failure by May 31? May 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $120 −$90 -75%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $165 +$48 +29%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? May 16 $444 +$38 +9%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? May 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $21 +$235 +1130%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $5,000 +$29 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $70,014 +$347 +0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1,387 +$13 +1%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Schmitt as the next United States Atto May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? May 13 $65 +$29 +45%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? May 12 $23 +$1 +6%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 10 $5 $0 -6%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? May 02 $2,500 −$477 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $50 +$30 +61%
Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30? May 01 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? May 01 $250 +$71 +28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $550 +$194 +35%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? May 01 $201 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed Apr 30 $500 +$7 +1%
Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference? Apr 30 $31 −$25 -81%
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conferenc Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press c Apr 30 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference? Apr 30 $204 −$172 -84%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Apr 30 $142 −$94 -66%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference? Apr 30 $15 +$66 +456%
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference? Apr 30 $26 +$92 +360%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $121 +$62 +51%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $116,197 +$1,790 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 67% +$59,340
politics 17% +$7,971
other 10% +$4,927
world 5% +$1,139
finance 0% +$195
sports 0% +$1,896
culture 0% −$25
crypto 0% −$129
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $356 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $2 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $668 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $15 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $10 19h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $1 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $2,760 27h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $9 28h
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $3 32h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $11 33h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $206 38h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $81 46h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $25 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $30 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 47h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 89¢ $649 47h
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $402 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $5,000 2d
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 3d
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $504 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $744 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $1,136 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $78 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $41 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $23 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $28 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 54¢ $54 6d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $102 6d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $52 6d
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 +49.1% +34.9% 58% 21% -9.3%
≤90d 114 -4.6% -13.7% 42% 23% -8.8%
all 444 +7.3% -3.0% 52% 26% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 26% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 21% -15.3%
15% -20.7% 16% -23.5%
20% -28.5% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152,942.43 · official $152,942.49 (match) · 3500 history records