Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe8a…4362 crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,448 (-70%) realized −$1,525 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$143
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,460
economics 1% −$15
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -98.6% -98.7% 0% 0% -97.8%
≤90d 31 -98.6% -98.7% 0% 0% -97.8%
all 72 -98.9% -99.0% 0% 0% -99.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.0% 0% -99.0%
10% -99.1% 0% -99.1%
15% -99.2% 0% -99.2%
20% -99.3% 0% -99.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$1,525
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 72
Open positions17
Markets (closed)72 / 89
History coverage161d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $70 $223 +$153 (+219%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+60%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 1? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+92%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Up 26¢ 60¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+129%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-47%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $20 −$19 (-48%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $12 −$19 (-62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-74%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 18 $21 −$12 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 −$32 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $44 −$41 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 02 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 02 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 5? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 26 $23 −$15 -67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 25? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 17? Jan 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? Jan 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 17? Jan 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 16? Jan 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 16? Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 16? Jan 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 16? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? Jan 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $28 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 26¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.41 · official $477.80 · 172 history records