Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe8b…5e62 sports 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+3%) realized +$253 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%131W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days−$403
14 days−$831
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$102
other 13% +$66
crypto 4% −$30
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -29.0%
≤30d 335 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 33% -6.2%
≤90d 392 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 33% -8.2%
all 392 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 33% -8.2%
10% -22.1% 33% -16.9%
15% -29.6% 33% -25.0%
20% -36.5% 33% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$22 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses131 / 261
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions8
Markets (closed)392 / 403
History coverage33d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 48¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+76%)
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Gavin Young 38¢ 48¢ $25 $31 +$7 (+27%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Magdalena Frech 27¢ 30¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Yes 24¢ 20¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-19%)
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Pegula 16¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Adolfo Vallejo $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $22 +$16 +70%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif Jun 21 $36 +$57 +160%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $53 −$52 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Jun 21 $24 +$43 +177%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $35 +$33 +95%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $25 +$42 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $20 +$65 +324%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $22 +$23 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova Jun 21 $17 +$24 +141%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $9 +$13 +139%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $27 −$26 -98%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $11 +$39 +344%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 +$56 +145%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $21 +$22 +101%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $25 +$27 +109%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $28 +$31 +109%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$54 +109%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $10 +$15 +148%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $22 +$39 +172%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$61 +249%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 +$32 +128%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$64 +413%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Yidi Yang Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Tatjana Maria vs Elise Mertens Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-26? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 38¢ $25 21m
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $25 1h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 99¢ $93 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $22 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 26¢ $29 2h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 37¢ $36 3h
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $68 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 45¢ $24 3h
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) BUY Pegula 16¢ $26 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 27¢ $22 3h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $67 3h
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $24 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $35 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur BUY Petra Marcinko 30¢ $36 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Marcos Giron 33¢ $26 4h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 42¢ $24 4h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 37¢ $25 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $85 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend SELL Gabriela Ruse 100¢ $45 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $41 5h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova SELL Daria Egorova 100¢ $42 5h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova BUY Daria Egorova 41¢ $17 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 23¢ $20 6h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 48¢ $22 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.73 · official $142.12 · 684 history records