Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe95…1a93 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$153
other 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.8% -24.7% 27% 27% -16.5%
≤30d 15 -16.8% -24.7% 27% 27% -16.5%
≤90d 15 -16.8% -24.7% 27% 27% -16.5%
all 15 -16.8% -24.7% 27% 27% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 27% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 27% -24.5%
15% -38.5% 27% -31.8%
20% -44.5% 27% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $197 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $62 −$61 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5 Jun 26 $27 +$23 +87%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 178.5 Jun 23 $25 +$25 +101%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $26 −$26 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$26 +188%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $257 −$12 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $84 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $866 −$29 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $5 59m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 50¢ $37 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 48¢ $28 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $43 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $43 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records