Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe97…6347 crypto 692 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,780 (+8%) realized +$11,943 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%425W / 548L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day224.6pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$9,168
world 12% +$12,991
other 11% +$3,333
sports 10% +$1,462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 590 -63.5% -67.0% 22% 20% -11.9%
≤30d 973 -28.7% -35.5% 44% 40% -5.6%
≤90d 973 -28.7% -35.5% 44% 40% -5.6%
all 973 -28.7% -35.5% 44% 40% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 40% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 33% -14.6%
15% -47.3% 27% -22.9%
20% -52.4% 19% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$82 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2,229
Realized+$11,943
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses425 / 548
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions5
Markets (closed)973 / 692
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day224.6
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 973 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $901 $876 −$25 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 50¢ $730 $542 −$188 (-26%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $300 $330 +$30 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $211 $268 +$57 (+27%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 33¢ $250 $213 −$37 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $710 −$710 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $535 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $197 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $26 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $152 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $5,425 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $803 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $609 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,229.44 · official $2,228.77 (match) · 3500 history records