Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe97…89f6 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$9
other 21% −$1
politics 19% $0
sports 10% −$11
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 34% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 80 -2.7% -12.0% 29% 1% -9.8%
all 84 -3.7% -12.9% 31% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 1% -10.1%
10% -21.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage535d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $127 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $88 −$7 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $15 −$1 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $7 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $83 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $7 +$2 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $108 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $62 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $55 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $16 $0 +1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $32 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $7 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.85 · official $38.85 (match) · 329 history records