Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe99…2eba crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,572 (+11%) realized +$2,530 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%75W / 123L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$1,388
14 days+$1,745
30 days+$2,567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2,942
crypto 24% −$647
other 3% +$42
tech 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.1% -5.8% 38% 38% +10.8%
≤30d 125 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 34% +5.4%
≤90d 198 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 37% -0.5%
all 198 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 37% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 37% -0.5%
10% -17.6% 34% -10.0%
15% -25.6% 30% -18.7%
20% -32.9% 28% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$38 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$842
Realized+$2,530
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses75 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)198 / 203
History coverage81d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $400 $417 +$17 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $101 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$19 +182%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$245 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$347 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$87 +328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4,819 +$829 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $528 +$250 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $282 +$240 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $166 +$117 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,140 +$1,197 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 56m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.05 · official $842.05 (match) · 550 history records