Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe99…1444 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$794 (-10%) realized −$783 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$679
other 17% −$78
politics 7% −$37
finance 2% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 2 -4.1% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 18 -17.9% -25.7% 28% 0% -20.1%
all 18 -17.9% -25.7% 28% 0% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -20.1%
10% -32.8% 0% -27.7%
15% -39.3% 0% -34.7%
20% -45.3% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$64 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized−$783
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage68d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $711 $700 −$11 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $212 −$4 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $289 −$19 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $4,936 −$496 -10%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $426 −$67 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 14 $55 −$12 -22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 14 $32 $0 +2%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $302 −$152 -50%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 09 $277 +$4 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 04 $170 −$34 -20%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $10 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 01 $76 −$2 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Apr 30 $25 $0 -1%
Trump sues Jimmy Kimmel by May 31? Apr 28 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $4 −$3 -58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 28 $56 −$32 -57%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $102 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $128 +$13 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $330 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 6d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 9d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $40 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 10d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 10d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 10d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 13d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $78 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 13d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 13d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $176 22d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $177 22d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 29d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $36 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.30 · official $700.20 (match) · 217 history records