Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

BE 0xbe9a…3a54 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$127 (+9%) realized +$323 · open −$196

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+1.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+12.3%	+1.6%	40%	40%	+4.3%
≤30d	15	+12.3%	+1.6%	40%	40%	+4.3%
≤90d	15	+12.3%	+1.6%	40%	40%	+4.3%
all	15	+12.3%	+1.6%	40%	40%	+4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.6%	40%	+4.3%
10%	-8.1%	33%	-5.7%
15%	-17.0%	33%	-14.8%
20%	-25.2%	27%	-23.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$28 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized+$323

Unrealized−$196

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage6d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	No	39¢	82¢	$15	$31	+$16 (+110%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	24¢	$12	$18	+$6 (+47%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	41¢	12¢	$34	$10	−$24 (-70%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	66¢	0¢	$193	$0	−$193 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$136	−$56	-41%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 20	$153	−$97	-63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$42	+$29	+70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$13	−$1	-10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	+$161	+158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$34	−$7	-20%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 20	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$35	+70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$42	−$6	-14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$22	−$21	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$105	+$12	+12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$12	−$11	-88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$81	+$37	+46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$32	+$116	+365%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	41¢	$35	39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	29¢	$35	39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$45	58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	35¢	$45	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	66¢	$195	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	47¢	$96	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	48¢	$99	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$56	2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL Yes	13¢	$56	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	66¢	$200	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$91	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$42	14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	19¢	$12	16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$13	16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$263	16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	39¢	$27	17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$34	21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	99¢	$23	22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	73¢	$17	22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Vitality	28¢	$13	23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Vitality	51¢	$25	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$22	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	84¢	$84	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.23 · official $84.89 · 45 history records