Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe9a…5278 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-6%) realized −$110 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$174
14 days+$174
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$100
sports 37% +$139
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +49.6% +35.3% 55% 55% +55.9%
≤30d 14 +27.8% +15.6% 50% 50% +36.1%
≤90d 21 +9.6% -0.8% 48% 48% +4.1%
all 23 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 43% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 43% -7.3%
10% -12.7% 43% -16.1%
15% -21.1% 30% -24.2%
20% -28.8% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$26 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage103d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -62%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$39 +96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$33 +108%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$4 +25%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +549%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$44 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $43 +$67 +156%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $112 −$15 -13%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $121 +$29 +24%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Apr 28 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $100 +$36 +36%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 17 $197 −$87 -44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $200 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $4 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $80 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $41 4h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 47¢ $15 19h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 47¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $10 20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? AND Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 BUY $10 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $19 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 41h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United Sta BUY 38¢ $31 41h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 21¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Engla BUY 17¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 3d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $102 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $43 4d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 21d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Arsenal FC 100¢ $150 21d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 35¢ $6 21d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $10 22d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 80¢ $121 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.18 · official $234.18 (match) · 55 history records