Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe9c…f9be crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$212 (+2%) realized +$213 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%113W / 96L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$345
sports 23% −$186
world 5% +$118
other 3% −$41
politics 1% −$13
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 33% -6.6%
≤30d 3 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 46 -91.1% -92.0% 7% 7% -96.6%
all 209 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 51% -7.2%
10% -19.2% 47% -16.1%
15% -27.0% 42% -24.2%
20% -34.2% 37% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses113 / 96
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)209 / 212
History coverage361d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$16 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Dream vs Mercury Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down on July 27? Apr 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Apr 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Pirates vs. Reds Apr 03 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on July 30? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Astros vs. Yankees Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Reds vs. Angels Apr 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Cowboys vs. Bears Apr 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 23? Apr 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27? Apr 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Angels vs. Tigers Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3200 and $3300 on July 17 at 5P Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Reds Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Apr 03 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $175 on July 23? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6AM ET Apr 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Marlins vs. Phillies Apr 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6PM ET Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner Apr 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Apr 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 30? Apr 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 7PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down on July 19? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Giants vs. Brewers Apr 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Lynx vs Liberty Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Twins vs. White Sox Apr 03 $75 −$75 -100%
XRP Up or Down on August 7? Apr 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down on July 19? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Apr 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 03 $4 +$1 +21%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 01 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $1 $0 +35%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $9 +$3 +30%
Giants vs. Saints Oct 06 $15 +$12 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 68¢ $38 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 58¢ $22 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $6 72d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $4 72d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 81d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 77¢ $5 81d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $2 83d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $4 83d
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $30 85d
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $10 85d
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $8 85d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $1 221d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 221d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 221d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 221d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $12 257d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? BUY No 30¢ $7 257d
Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner BUY Padres 52¢ $30 265d
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 64¢ $20 265d
Giants vs. Saints BUY Saints 55¢ $15 265d
Yankees vs. Red Sox Series Winner SELL Red Sox 61¢ $64 265d
Yankees vs. Red Sox Series Winner BUY Red Sox 38¢ $40 266d
Red Sox vs. Yankees BUY Red Sox 39¢ $43 266d
Marlins vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 66¢ $80 274d
Tigers vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 43¢ $20 274d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.20 · official $107.20 (match) · 487 history records