Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbe9f…014a other 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,376 (+32%) realized +$2,343 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 46L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$488
7 days−$488
14 days−$488
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 51% +$589
other 43% +$1,909
sports 4% −$105
world 2% +$37
tech 1% −$26
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -79.7%
≤30d 30 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -79.7%
≤90d 86 +20.7% +9.2% 49% 40% +20.0%
all 88 +20.2% +8.7% 48% 39% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 39% +20.0%
10% -1.7% 33% +8.5%
15% -11.2% 31% -2.0%
20% -19.9% 27% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$24 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$2,343
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)88 / 98
History coverage109d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? No 85¢ 100¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 2 Haiti? No 87¢ 100¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? No 87¢ 100¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+15%)
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 10¢ 100¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+899%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Over 9¢ 31¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+253%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals No 85¢ 73¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$17 +86%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $19 +$16 +86%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $16 +$6 +36%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $6 +$5 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $40,750 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $680 on April 20? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $104 in April? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of April 20 2026? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 20 above $410? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Paramount+ subscribers above 82M in Q1? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$365 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of April 20 2026? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000? Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Palantir total customers above 1060 in Q1? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $120 in April? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit (LOW) $560 in April? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 79000? Jun 24 $254 −$249 -98%
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will "Izuku Midoriya (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON)" win Best Anime M May 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 13 $27 +$6 +20%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 240m? May 07 $169 +$94 +56%
Palantir total customers above 1040 in Q1? May 05 $19 +$83 +441%
Paramount+ subscribers above 80M in Q1? May 04 $13 +$67 +501%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $108 in April? May 01 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of April? May 01 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 01 $1,514 +$459 +30%
Will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit (LOW) $570 in April? Apr 30 $52 +$99 +192%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 26 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$410 on the final day of trading of the we Apr 26 $15 +$6 +40%
Will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $118 in April? Apr 22 $8 +$8 +100%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 22 $16 +$2 +11%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 22 $30 +$28 +92%
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 22 $83 +$9 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $685 on April 20? Apr 21 $2 +$1 +92%
Will the Patek Index hit $103,000 (LOW) by April 30? Apr 20 $27 +$12 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $6 14m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY No 82¢ $35 14m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 8¢ $4 17m
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $35 17m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 8¢ $4 20m
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 87¢ $35 20m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 9¢ $4 24m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 8¢ $2 24m
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 37m
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY No 85¢ $9 37m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY No 89¢ $35 41m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $3 41m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 73¢ $10 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 73¢ $7 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 21¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY No 52¢ $6 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY No 65¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $3 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 8¢ $3 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 38¢ $13 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 38¢ $15 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.50 · official $206.50 (match) · 545 history records