Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbea0…f92a sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+5%) realized +$35 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$21
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$106
other 35% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.6% -27.3% 27% 18% -12.2%
≤30d 16 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 38% -6.0%
≤90d 16 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 38% -6.0%
all 16 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 38% -6.0%
10% -16.0% 38% -15.0%
15% -24.1% 25% -23.2%
20% -31.6% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $130 −$2 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$18 -89%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $156 +$11 +7%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$6 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $103 +$45 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$35 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 −$64 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$16 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 +$20 +99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$23 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $128 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $130 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $34 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $4 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $30 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $122 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $103 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $19 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $105 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $70 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $134 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 68¢ $25 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 27¢ $10 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 80¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.95 · official $36.96 (match) · 40 history records