Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
BE 0xbea0…e19d politics 979 markets active 2h ago coverage 406d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$2,122 (+18%) realized +$2,100 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate74%554W / 192L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$35
14 days+$154
30 days+$533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$833
other 21% +$151
world 17% +$223
culture 6% +$141
economics 5% +$18
tech 4% +$91
finance 2% +$34
sports 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +16.3% +5.3% 75% 64% -12.7%
≤30d 144 +27.0% +14.9% 82% 73% +5.8%
≤90d 423 +24.9% +13.0% 74% 67% +7.1%
all 746 +25.7% +13.8% 74% 68% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 68% +9.2%
10% +2.9% 53% -1.2%
15% -7.1% 38% -10.8%
20% -16.2% 27% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$3,227
Realized+$2,100
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses554 / 192
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions233
Markets (closed)746 / 979
History coverage406d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 233 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 59¢ $333 $268 −$65 (-19%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 98¢ $143 $228 +$85 (+59%)
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $124 $138 +$14 (+12%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $130 $137 +$8 (+6%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 68¢ 75¢ $108 $119 +$12 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat? No 48¢ 48¢ $104 $106 +$2 (+2%)
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 60¢ 98¢ $64 $104 +$40 (+62%)
UK Recession in 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $82 $98 +$16 (+20%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $85 $77 −$8 (-9%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 62¢ 98¢ $47 $74 +$27 (+58%)
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? No 76¢ 59¢ $93 $73 −$20 (-22%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 83¢ $49 $61 +$12 (+24%)
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$7 (+15%)
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top Spotify album for 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $53 $55 +$3 (+5%)
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 72¢ 74¢ $49 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will USD/BRL hit 7 (High) in 2026? No 87¢ 60¢ $66 $45 −$20 (-31%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 65¢ 77¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+18%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 88¢ 98¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 70¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat? No 72¢ 82¢ $30 $34 +$5 (+15%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? No 74¢ 78¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? No 52¢ 53¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? Yes 80¢ 32¢ $79 $32 −$47 (-59%)
Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top Spotify album for 2026? No 82¢ 70¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-14%)
Will USD/BRL hit 6.75 (High) in 2026? No 80¢ 59¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Jun 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? Jun 19 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +44%
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +65%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 17 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +52%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $335 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $137 −$51 -37%
Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +17%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +150%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential n Jun 16 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $27 −$17 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $110 +$29 +27%
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Raul Ruiz advance from the CA-25 primary election? Jun 10 $112 +$10 +9%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 09 $98 +$23 +23%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -25%
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? BUY No 52¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? BUY No 52¢ $26 3h
Japan recession in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $20 13h
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 31¢ $16 18h
Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election SELL Yes 22¢ $9 23h
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? SELL No 27¢ $5 24h
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $2 28h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. BUY No 12¢ $14 29h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 30h
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? SELL No 85¢ $6 31h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $14 34h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 34h
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $13 34h
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $115 34h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 m BUY Yes 56¢ $133 34h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I SELL Yes 29¢ $3 39h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I SELL Yes 29¢ $4 39h
UK Recession in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $25 42h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I BUY Yes 24¢ $18 45h
Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? BUY No 76¢ $100 45h
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? SELL No 21¢ $4 46h
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? SELL No 18¢ $13 46h
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? SELL No 18¢ $1 2d
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? SELL No 71¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,227.48 · official $3,225.65 (match) · 3224 history records