Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbea6…b50c crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.6% -25.4% 77% 8% -17.5%
≤30d 13 -17.6% -25.4% 77% 8% -17.5%
≤90d 13 -17.6% -25.4% 77% 8% -17.5%
all 13 -17.6% -25.4% 77% 8% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 8% -17.5%
10% -32.6% 8% -25.4%
15% -39.1% 0% -32.6%
20% -45.1% 0% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$49 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records