Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbea6…c801 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$24
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$9
crypto 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 265 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)265 / 265
History coverage142d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 265 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $386 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $370 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $995 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $578 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $327 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $582 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $444 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $677 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $322 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $282 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $375 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 51m
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 6h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 7h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 12h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 13h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $0 15h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $0 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 20h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 28h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 31h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 32h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 37h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 38h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 40h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 42h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 43h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 44h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1515 history records