Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbeab…ee09 crypto 364 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$583 (+9%) realized +$586 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%159W / 204L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$537
7 days+$537
14 days+$537
30 days+$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$416
sports 1% −$29
other 1% −$40
weather 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -7.0% -15.9% 46% 44% +1.0%
≤30d 165 -7.0% -15.9% 46% 44% +1.0%
≤90d 363 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 43% -4.8%
all 363 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 43% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 43% -4.8%
10% -28.0% 42% -13.9%
15% -35.0% 39% -22.2%
20% -41.4% 36% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$586
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses159 / 204
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage58d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $471 +$369 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$13 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$49 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$37 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$37 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $471 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.67 · official $6.67 (match) · 935 history records