Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbeb1…a7e6 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 75% +15.1%
≤30d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 75% +15.1%
≤90d 4 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 75% +15.1%
all 4 +9.4% -1.0% 75% 75% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 75% +15.1%
10% -10.5% 75% +4.1%
15% -19.2% 75% -5.9%
20% -27.1% 25% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $95 $106 +$11 (+11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $69 +$26 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$7 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $44 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.19 · official $351.14 (match) · 11 history records