Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeb3…4fbc other 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-4%) realized −$138 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$712
14 days−$276
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$576
sports 28% +$215
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -57.5% -61.5% 20% 20% -52.0%
≤30d 68 -31.8% -38.3% 32% 32% -12.8%
≤90d 68 -31.8% -38.3% 32% 32% -12.8%
all 71 -30.9% -37.5% 34% 32% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 32% -17.8%
10% -43.5% 31% -25.7%
15% -48.9% 30% -32.8%
20% -54.0% 25% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$44 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 47
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage286d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 56¢ $140 $136 −$4 (-3%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 16¢ 14¢ $129 $117 −$12 (-9%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $15 $22 +$8 (+50%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $51 +$45 +90%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 +$25 +239%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $11 +$13 +114%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 +$62 +152%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $81 −$80 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$106 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$113 +111%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $180 −$176 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $130 −$127 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 22¢ $15 8m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $142 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $144 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 12h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $153 20h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 37h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 37h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 37h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 28¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.76 · official $281.67 · 133 history records