Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbeb9…2cd5 crypto 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,287 (-11%) realized −$1,269 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%405W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day107.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$142
14 days−$207
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$932
sports 0% −$2
other 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +216.6% +186.4% 39% 39% -64.4%
≤30d 752 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 46% -17.7%
≤90d 752 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 46% -17.7%
all 752 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 46% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 46% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 44% -25.6%
15% -36.1% 4% -32.8%
20% -42.4% 3% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1,269
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses405 / 347
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)752 / 721
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day107.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 33¢ 47¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 44¢ 28¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No 62¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 72¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 323 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +730%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1002%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +2158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1652%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +754%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +592%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 +$3 +27%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $68 −$65 -96%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $10 42m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 83¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $10 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 80¢ $8 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $5 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 3h
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 BUY Yes 40¢ $5 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $17 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.39 · official $30.39 (match) · 3500 history records