Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbebe…d5ab politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1
politics 23% $0
other 22% +$2
crypto 11% $0
tech 5% −$1
sports 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 55 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 4% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage460d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $50 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 11 $33 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 08 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $1 $0 -37%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $4 +$5 +119%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $13 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 46h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $30 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.89 · official $28.89 (match) · 181 history records