Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbebf…9bae sports 1041 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$687 (+2%) realized +$688 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%480W / 552L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$662est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$684
14 days−$801
30 days−$988
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$986
other 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -20.8% -28.3% 38% 35% -20.7%
≤30d 409 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 1032 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 43% -10.7%
all 1032 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 43% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 43% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 40% -19.2%
15% -30.8% 34% -27.0%
20% -37.6% 27% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$688
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses480 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$662
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1032 / 1041
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1032 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 53¢ 60¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 56¢ 66¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 44¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 60¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 67¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Rinky Hijikata 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $61 −$35 -58%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $15 −$8 -51%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $17 −$10 -58%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $31 −$24 -78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $18 +$2 +14%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $30 −$24 -80%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $15 −$14 -92%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $20 −$18 -90%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $20 −$18 -87%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $20 −$11 -54%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $30 +$19 +61%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $41 −$39 -96%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $20 −$13 -65%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $30 +$11 +38%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $20 +$21 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $474 −$96 -20%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $325 −$211 -65%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $41 −$20 -50%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $167 −$105 -63%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $131 +$17 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $101 +$5 +5%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $97 −$10 -10%
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $14 8m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 43¢ $14 8m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $5 9m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 41¢ $13 10m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Rinky Hijikata 48¢ $14 11m
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 44¢ $14 11m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Andrey Rublev 23¢ $8 14m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $10 19m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 56¢ $15 26m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Joao Fonseca 2¢ $1 29m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 43¢ $10 53m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Brandon Nakashima 97¢ $16 58m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Ben Shelton 50¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 67¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 7¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Joao Fonseca 39¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 55¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 68¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 67¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 99¢ $29 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 17¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 14¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 24¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexei Popyrin 22¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $9 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 59¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 47¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.42 · official $84.42 (match) · 3500 history records