Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbebf…4e07 other 211 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,494 (+6%) realized +$8,517 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%126W / 82L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$678per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$465
14 days+$797
30 days+$1,216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$7,420
finance 13% +$319
world 10% +$213
tech 4% +$578
crypto 1% −$190
weather 1% −$151
sports 1% +$11
politics 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.3% +10.6% 100% 33% -4.9%
≤30d 51 +5.5% -4.5% 63% 35% -5.6%
≤90d 132 -9.3% -18.0% 50% 30% -9.1%
all 208 +0.6% -9.0% 61% 36% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 36% -4.4%
10% -17.7% 22% -13.5%
15% -25.6% 16% -21.9%
20% -32.9% 12% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$87 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$8,517
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses126 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)208 / 211
History coverage185d
Avg bet$678
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 38¢ 35¢ $278 $256 −$22 (-8%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 17¢ 18¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $69 +$3 +4%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,670 +$90 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $1,265 +$36 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,914 +$271 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 +$29 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $911 +$76 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $864 +$76 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,225 +$150 +12%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $177 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 +$32 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $78 +$22 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $84 +$9 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $95 +$25 +26%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $54 +$30 +55%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -86%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $10 +$68 +665%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $135 +$7 +5%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $374 +$47 +12%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $55 +$4 +8%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $71 −$70 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $850 +$88 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 05 $485 +$67 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 05 $429 +$69 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $679 +$45 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $193 −$62 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $461 −$82 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $98 −$15 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $9 +$6 +73%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $379 +$130 +34%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $780 −$6 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $638 +$44 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $3 +$6 +163%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,370 −$8 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $41 −$24 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $3,607 +$92 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $18 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $285 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $72 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $66 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $37 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $153 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $8 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $44 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $646 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $16 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $30 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $635 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $154 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 88¢ $38 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 80¢ $800 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 87¢ $870 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 86¢ $649 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $4 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $9 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $26 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $18 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $98 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 88¢ $444 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 84¢ $483 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 84¢ $252 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 84¢ $105 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.68 · official $282.68 (match) · 1188 history records