Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbec0…9bdd sports 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3058 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$28,256 (-24%) realized −$27,448 · open −$808
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +601% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +440% what you keep after slip
Net edge+440%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%154W / 53L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day3058.0pace
Fees−$659est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$12,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,366
other 34% +$7,797
world 11% +$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3058 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+534.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 +601.3% +534.5% 74% 63% +23.8%
≤30d 207 +601.3% +534.5% 74% 63% +23.8%
≤90d 207 +601.3% +534.5% 74% 63% +23.8%
all 207 +601.3% +534.5% 74% 63% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3058.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +534.5% 63% +23.8%
10% ← realistic here +473.8% 60% +12.0%
15% +418.3% 58% +1.1%
20% +367.5% 56% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +601% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +131% → late +1067% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$508 vs −$486 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12,018
Realized−$27,448
Unrealized−$808
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses154 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$659
Open positions48
Markets (closed)207 / 105
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day3058.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? No 86¢ 100¢ $1,238 $1,446 +$208 (+17%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,063 $1,065 +$2 (+0%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $627 $967 +$339 (+54%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 3 IR Iran? No 94¢ 96¢ $687 $698 +$11 (+2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? No 97¢ 99¢ $640 $652 +$12 (+2%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Under 85¢ 94¢ $585 $648 +$63 (+11%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 32¢ $986 $633 −$353 (-36%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 36¢ $611 $448 −$162 (-27%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? No 87¢ 100¢ $378 $432 +$55 (+15%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 90¢ $398 $415 +$17 (+4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? No 98¢ 99¢ $356 $360 +$3 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 100¢ $301 $312 +$11 (+4%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? No 75¢ 68¢ $343 $309 −$34 (-10%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $292 $285 −$7 (-2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $225 $282 +$57 (+25%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? No 95¢ 100¢ $258 $271 +$13 (+5%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $247 $252 +$6 (+2%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 97¢ 100¢ $188 $195 +$6 (+3%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? No 94¢ 100¢ $163 $174 +$10 (+6%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 29¢ 28¢ $176 $167 −$9 (-5%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 29¢ 10¢ $418 $151 −$267 (-64%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? No 94¢ 99¢ $140 $149 +$8 (+6%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Under 84¢ 84¢ $138 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? No 95¢ 100¢ $125 $131 +$6 (+5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? No 78¢ 79¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $71 +$876 +1239%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 27 $603 +$402 +67%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 27 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $3,386 −$4,178 -123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $1,895 −$1,015 -54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,006 +$670 +67%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $247 −$5 -2%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 27 $146 +$517 +353%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 27 $12 +$562 +4696%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $81 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $128 +$296 +231%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 +$280 +1422%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 27 $96 +$42 +44%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 27 $258 +$89 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $161 +$806 +500%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $62 +$602 +965%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $67 +$142 +212%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $1 +$764 +65722%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $85 +$476 +558%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $16 +$5 +29%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $4 +$520 +14101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $202 +$1,628 +806%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $14 +$1,232 +9093%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 27 $50 +$74 +147%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 27 $79 +$216 +273%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $15 +$1,108 +7608%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 27 $282 −$170 -60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $83 +$1,947 +2336%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $305 +$333 +109%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1,231 −$1,058 -86%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 27 $2 −$580 -37898%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 27 $128 +$879 +689%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 27 $385 +$644 +168%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $89 +$746 +838%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 27 $9 +$625 +6832%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 27 $254 −$138 -54%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $9 +$359 +4011%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 27 $152 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 27 $18 +$604 +3359%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 27 $8 +$1,193 +14312%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 27 $379 +$855 +226%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $47 −$457 -965%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $26 +$367 +1424%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 27 $25 +$516 +2092%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 27 $125 +$128 +102%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 0m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 98¢ $193 0m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $38 0m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $38 0m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 0m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 0m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 33¢ $63 1m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY No 77¢ $125 2m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 3m
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $38 3m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $139 4m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $139 4m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $62 4m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,017.92 · official $12,018.01 (match) · 3500 history records