Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbec5…1aee other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate94%65W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$24
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$244
other 22% +$96
crypto 9% −$240
tech 5% −$61
politics 5% +$12
economics 4% +$22
culture 3% +$26
finance 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 38 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 13% -7.1%
all 69 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$90 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses65 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage357d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,033 $1,034 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $191 $0 +0%
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $542 +$1 +0%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $236 $0 +0%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,031 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,010 +$22 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,009 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $499 +$8 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $499 +$4 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 31 $997 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $963 +$33 +3%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $459 +$17 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $459 +$28 +6%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $116 +$33 +28%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $116 +$29 +25%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? May 04 $58 +$4 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $280 +$53 +19%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 01 $111 +$1 +1%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? May 01 $115 +$4 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $279 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $217 +$14 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $383 +$6 +2%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 23 $383 +$3 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 15 $764 +$2 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $763 +$2 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 09 $455 +$8 +2%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $232 +$12 +5%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $45 +$5 +10%
Will NOAA Weather Radio be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Ma Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will RadarOmega: Doppler Radar App be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Mar 22 $56 $0 +1%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20 Mar 22 $80 +$20 +26%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? Mar 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Marc Mar 22 $149 +$1 +0%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 20 Mar 22 $173 +$27 +16%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 16? Mar 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $76 +$4 +5%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th A Mar 16 $253 +$10 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $253 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 12 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 09 $103 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $433 1h
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Will Pau Cubarsí be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $542 2d
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $236 2d
Will Ferran Torres be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $191 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,031 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $462 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $498 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 16d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $331 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $499 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $998 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $963 26d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $183 35d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 35d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $221 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,033.79 · official $1,033.79 (match) · 206 history records