Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbec7…5977 sports 310 markets active 4h ago coverage 157d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 157d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157,149 (-19%) realized −$169,960 · open +$12,811
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%154W / 311L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,613per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$72,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$52,097
other 10% +$7,762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -77.7% -79.8% 11% 11% -97.0%
≤30d 219 -73.5% -76.0% 14% 14% -96.3%
≤90d 221 -73.7% -76.2% 14% 14% -96.3%
all 465 -40.5% -46.1% 33% 33% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.1% 33% -47.5%
10% -51.3% 29% -52.5%
15% ← realistic here -56.0% 24% -57.1%
20% -60.3% 18% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$3,959) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,546 vs −$2,412 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$72,188
Realized−$169,960
Unrealized+$12,811
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses154 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions7
Markets (closed)465 / 310
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$2,613
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $19,799 $24,396 +$4,597 (+23%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $13,471 $17,527 +$4,055 (+30%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $8,957 $10,725 +$1,767 (+20%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 42¢ 47¢ $9,209 $10,397 +$1,188 (+13%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $7,241 $8,452 +$1,211 (+17%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 304 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bucks vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,600 −$1,790 -112%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4,537 −$4,289 -94%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 17 $8,700 −$8,700 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,462 −$1,462 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) Jun 17 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Jun 17 $4,750 −$5,000 -105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6,450 −$6,450 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Jun 17 $12,350 −$12,350 -100%
Will Aurora Gaming win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $840 −$840 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs FlyQuest (BO1) Jun 17 $3,718 −$6,480 -174%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $7,560 −$7,560 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Jun 17 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,871 −$4,871 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 17 $370 −$420 -114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 17 $9,300 −$9,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,376 −$2,399 -101%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Wildcard (BO3) Jun 17 $4,954 −$4,954 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,277 −$1,277 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) Jun 17 $825 −$825 -100%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Marsborne (BO3) Jun 17 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 17 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Jun 17 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Jun 17 $13,116 −$13,116 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-GANK Esports vs Tricked (BO3) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Rare Atom (BO1) Jun 17 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,372 −$1,372 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Jun 17 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs The Huns Esports (BO1) Jun 17 $960 −$960 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Fluxo (BO3) Jun 17 $6,049 −$6,049 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs regain (BO3) Jun 17 $851 −$958 -113%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs RED Canids (BO1) Jun 17 $3,413 −$3,420 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) Jun 17 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Preasy Mix vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 17 $2,944 −$2,944 -100%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs GenOne (BO3) Jun 17 $4,568 −$4,581 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Jun 17 $2,639 −$2,639 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs JiJieHao (BO3) Jun 17 $770 −$1,011 -131%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Voca (BO3) Jun 17 $3,308 −$3,308 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $621 4h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $621 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $204 5h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $483 6h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,387 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 11h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 11h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 11h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $456 11h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $414 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 13h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $156 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $432 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $602 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $258 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $281 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,041 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 22h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $190 22h
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? SELL Anthropic 70¢ $811 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 25h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $286 25h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 25h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $305 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $202 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $204 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72,188.07 · official $72,188.15 (match) · 3500 history records