Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbecb…1494 crypto 701 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%372W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$29
14 days+$17
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$32
tech 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 59% -3.2%
≤30d 700 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 53% -12.2%
≤90d 700 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 53% -12.2%
all 700 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 53% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 53% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 53% -20.6%
15% -27.1% 52% -28.3%
20% -34.2% 51% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses372 / 328
Open positions1
Markets (closed)700 / 701
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+223%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $6.45 (match) · 1402 history records