Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbed0…59ba world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$11
sports 20% −$4
other 18% −$9
politics 16% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 26 -0.5% -9.9% 42% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 73 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 3% -9.9%
all 86 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage535d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 84¢ 84¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $77 −$4 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $125 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $14 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $39 −$6 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $45 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $2 $0 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $36 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $47 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $45 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $246 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $7 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $10 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $27 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.40 · official $31.27 (match) · 319 history records