Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbed0…e863 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$12 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$124
sports 33% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.8%
all 8 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 50% -9.8%
10% -31.5% 50% -18.4%
15% -38.1% 50% -26.3%
20% -44.2% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$28 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$15 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$40 -88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $46 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.15 · official $41.64 (match) · 15 history records