Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbee2…7c46 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 25% −$5
world 13% −$2
tech 7% −$1
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.0% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.0% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$811) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage88d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,251 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $64 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 14 $807 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $790 $0 +0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 14 $790 −$2 -0%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 12 $839 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 12 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $784 −$1 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 12 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $64 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,213 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 2h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,261 2h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $967 2h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $303 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 3h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $91 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $74 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 44d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 44d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 44d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 44d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 44d
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $806 46d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 46d
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $738 46d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 46d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 46d
Will Lithuania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 46d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $607 46d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $182 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records