Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BE 0xbee4…b756 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3
other 18% $0
sports 8% −$6
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 +12.9% +2.1% 47% 18% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +12.9% +2.1% 47% 18% -9.2%
all 27 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 19% -9.4%
10% -7.6% 11% -18.1%
15% -16.5% 11% -26.0%
20% -24.7% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage488d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $50 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $23 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $55 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $48 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $92 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $50 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $6 +$1 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 4? Mar 06 $4 +$4 +117%
Flames vs. Flyers Mar 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Stanford vs. Notre Dame Mar 04 $18 $0 -2%
Rutgers vs. Washington Mar 04 $8 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $45 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $49 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $12 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $25 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $19 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $45 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $48 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.67 (match) · 86 history records