Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BE 0xbee9…618d sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$266 (-6%) realized −$236 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$183per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$103est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$292

7 days−$198

14 days−$380

30 days−$295

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+24.2%	+12.4%	67%	50%	-16.4%
≤30d	22	+32.3%	+19.7%	55%	50%	-16.6%
≤90d	22	+32.3%	+19.7%	55%	50%	-16.6%
all	22	+32.3%	+19.7%	55%	50%	-16.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.7%	50%	-16.6%
10%	+8.3%	36%	-24.5%
15%	-2.2%	27%	-31.8%
20%	-11.8%	27%	-38.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +70% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$53 vs −$93 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$236

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$103

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage18d

Avg bet$183

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	25¢	0¢	$29	$0	−$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	FURIA	9¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$379	+$64	+17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$1,233	+$128	+10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$472	+$93	+20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$5	+$9	+205%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	−$3	-7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$494	−$489	-99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$127	−$125	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$55	+$78	+143%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 08	$112	−$58	-51%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$222	−$218	-98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$253	+$80	+32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$190	+$64	+34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$2	+$2	+120%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 07	$20	+$31	+151%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 06	$129	+$28	+22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$15	−$12	-77%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$25	+$17	+68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 06	$96	+$36	+38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 06	$85	−$3	-4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 03	$14	−$14	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	60¢	$443	3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	50¢	$379	29m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	13¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	19¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	24¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY FURIA	28¢	$20	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL FURIA	14¢	$6	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY FURIA	9¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	90¢	$409	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	81¢	$371	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	14¢	$5	20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	58¢	$179	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	47¢	$152	21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	59¢	$343	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	53¢	$271	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	44¢	$270	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	43¢	$313	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Spirit	60¢	$313	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Spirit	50¢	$268	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	46¢	$251	22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	36¢	$204	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	38¢	$0	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Spirit	32¢	$14	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Spirit	10¢	$5	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	66¢	$211	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	56¢	$184	23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Spirit	55¢	$183	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	49¢	$168	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	52¢	$169	24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	42¢	$141	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 65 history records