Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeee…7ba9 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$160 (+20%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$4
other 27% +$71
sports 20% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 41% +6.7%
≤30d 22 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 41% +6.7%
≤90d 22 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 41% +6.7%
all 22 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 41% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 41% +6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 27% -3.5%
15% -23.5% 27% -12.8%
20% -31.0% 27% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Toronto Argonauts 36¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$6 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$19 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$52 +197%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $124 +$160 +130%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 26 $30 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $91 +$61 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $41 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $24 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $63 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $36 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $57 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.51 · official $34.51 (match) · 62 history records