Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbeef…1cba sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$32
sports 9% +$47
world 5% −$19
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$10
politics 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +80.0% +62.9% 60% 60% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +80.0% +62.9% 60% 60% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +42.8% +29.2% 43% 43% -9.3%
all 59 -12.2% -20.6% 56% 32% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 32% -9.7%
10% -28.2% 20% -18.4%
15% -35.1% 20% -26.3%
20% -41.5% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage482d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Karim Bennani Karim Bennani 51¢ 38¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 28 $15 +$22 +146%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Cr Jun 28 $15 +$25 +167%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,210 −$8 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4,324 −$24 -1%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Jun 26 $8 +$7 +89%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $159 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Celtics Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 25 $10 +$9 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Karolina Muchova vs Victoria Mboko Mar 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs illwill (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdo Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kick Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Sonay Kartal vs S Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs 33 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Pl Feb 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Hornets vs. Jazz Jan 11 $50 +$27 +54%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $50 +$50 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 18 $25 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Dec 18 $66 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Sabres Nov 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Nov 19 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31? Nov 18 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 18 $2 $0 +6%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Nov 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Oct 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Oct 25 $2 +$1 +49%
Kings vs. Suns Oct 24 $3 +$2 +61%
Mets vs. Phillies Oct 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Kraken vs. Capitals Oct 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 21 $2 $0 +12%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Sep 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? Sep 11 $1 +$1 +61%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Aug 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Jul 23 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31? Jul 20 $216 −$13 -6%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 20 $200 −$10 -5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 20 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jul 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m? Jul 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $2 $0 +16%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Jun 22 $1 $0 +20%
Solana above $190 on May 16? Jun 22 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Karim Bennani BUY Karim Bennani 51¢ $22 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Cr BUY 37¢ $15 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $2,202 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2,098 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $112 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $4,300 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 40¢ $15 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $4,324 2d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $119 68d
Avalanche vs. Oilers BUY Avalanche 53¢ $8 75d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 75d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 56¢ $4 94d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Devils 53¢ $10 103d
Qatar Total Open: Karolina Muchova vs Victoria Mboko BUY Mboko 55¢ $25 133d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Sonay Kartal vs S BUY Hunter 12¢ $5 135d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kick BUY Rex Regum Qeon 28¢ $10 135d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY DRX 30¢ $8 135d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs illwill (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdo BUY illwill 35¢ $2 135d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs 33 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Pl BUY 33 50¢ $10 135d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $10 135d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q BUY Wildcard 27¢ $5 135d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $159 167d
Hornets vs. Jazz BUY Hornets 65¢ $50 168d
Spurs vs. Celtics BUY Spurs 50¢ $50 168d
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Kostyuk 26¢ $20 168d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 191d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 191d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 191d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.46 · official $60.46 (match) · 231 history records